When President Obama came to office, we did not have the resources or strategy in place to advance critical U.S. national security goals in Pakistan – a country central to confronting the threat of the Taliban and al Qaeda, preventing nuclear terrorism, and promoting stability in a strategically vital region of the world. As the nonpartisan Government Accountability Office (GAO) reported in April of 2008, the United States had “no comprehensive plan” in place “to destroy the terrorist threat and close the safe haven in Pakistan’s FATA region.” Years of neglect and short-sighted policies allowed al Qaeda and affiliated terrorists to secure new safe havens in the tribal regions and, in the words of our intelligence community, left Pakistan“on the edge,” and without the capacity to confront an intensifying terrorist threat inside its borders. In March of 2008, then-CIA Director Michael Hayden warned that the terrorists operating along border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan represented a “clear and present danger to Afghanistan, to Pakistan and to the West in general, and to the United States in particular.”[1]

Fifteen months later, the situation is markedly different. The Obama Administration has replaced ad hoc policies with a comprehensive, pragmatic strategy that more aggressively targets Taliban and al Qaeda terrorists, while building the framework for an effective partnership with Pakistan to build sustainable security in the region. Although the terrorist threat remains grave, there are strong signs that the new approach is disrupting Taliban and al Qaeda operations and beginning to lay the groundwork for a longer-term campaign to deny terrorists support and safe haven in Pakistan.

The Obama Administration has made building a partnership with Pakistan a central U.S. national security priority. The previous Administration pursued a dangerously short-sighted and simplistic approach toward Pakistan. For years, it relied on a military strategy built primarily on a personal relationship with President Musharrafand, in effect, outsourced U.S. counterterrorism efforts to the Pakistani military – funneling $11 billion in military assistance to Pakistan with little oversight or accountability, and very few results. At the same time, the Bush Administration neglected critical development needs in Pakistan, failing to address root causes contributing to the growth of violent extremism in the region. While investing heavily in counterterrorism initiatives and military aid, nonmilitary assistance was virtually nonexistent: throughout Fiscal Years 2002-2007, just one percent of U.S. spending in Pakistan’s tribal region was devoted to development efforts. This fundamental imbalance not only prevented the development of a viable partnership with the Pakistani government, it also stymied our ability to effectively address the Taliban and al Qaeda threat and advance other central national security goals in the region.[2]

President Obama came to office pledging to overhaul these failing policies and took immediate, decisive action to develop a comprehensive strategy and build a more effective strategic relationship with the Pakistani government and its people – and advance critical U.S. national security goals in the region. Following a full-scale review of U.S. policy, the President outlined a comprehensive plan to integrate military, civilian, and intelligence resources toward a clear and narrowly defined goal of defeating al Qaeda and building the long-term capacity to prevent its return in the future. Over the past year, the Administration has continued to strengthen our relationship with Pakistan, providing a dramatic increase in development funding, a bolstered and more accountable military assistance program for improving Pakistani counterterrorism capabilities, and significantly enhanced efforts to combat the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

The Obama Administration has put in place a comprehensive civil-military strategy to address our national security interests in Pakistan.

• A clear, focused mission.The President has defined a clear overarching goal of our mission: “to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and to prevent its capacity to threaten America and our allies in the future.”
   
• Regional approach. “Recognizing the fundamental connection between our war effort in Afghanistan, and the extremist safe-havens in Pakistan,” President Obama discarded the previous Administration’s stove-piped policies toward the two countries, and adopted a regional strategy that better addresses the challenges we face in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.
   
• A comprehensive, integrated approach to the US-Pakistani partnership. The President’s new strategy effectively integrates civilian, military, and intelligence resources, providing for a pragmatic approach that advances both short and longer-term U.S. national security goals in the region. As the President described in December, “Moving forward, we are committed to a partnership with Pakistan that is built on a foundation of mutual interests, mutual respect, and mutual trust. We will strengthen Pakistan’s capacity to target those groups that threaten our countries, and have made it clear that we cannot tolerate a safe-haven for terrorists whose location is known, and whose intentions are clear.”[3]
   
• Increased focus on addressing root causes of instability. In direct support of a ramped up civilian assistance program and long-term strategic partnership with Pakistan, Congress worked with the Administration to enact the Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act for 2009. The bill, which was signed into law by the President in October, authorizes a total of $7.5 billion in non-military aid over five years ($1.5 billion each year from Fiscal Years 2010 through 2014), effectively tripling the current level of assistance. The funding is targeted toward efforts to strengthen Pakistan’s government and civil institutions and encourage long-term economic development – supporting larger security goals of eliminating terrorist safe havens and addressing the threat of the Taliban and al Qaeda terrorists operating inside the country. The bill includes important measures for ensuring transparency and accountability, to ensure that this assistance used efficiently and effectively and also enhances critical U.S. national security goals.[4]

The Administration has adopted a more aggressive counterterrorism strategy.

• The Administration has provided increased support to enable Pakistan to take aggressive action against the Taliban, al Qaeda, and other extremist elements within their borders.As part of a comprehensive civilian and military policy toward Pakistan, the Obama Administration has placed heightened pressure on the country’s leaders to address internal insurgent and terrorist threats. While reaching out to Pakistan’s civilian government with new support and an unprecedented commitment to civilian and development assistance, the Administration also has worked to prod Pakistan to lead a more aggressive and expansive counterinsurgency campaign. The United States has significantly increased funding to train and equip Pakistani forces for counterinsurgency operations. It has reportedly deployed Special Forces teams to accelerate the training of Pakistan’s Frontier Corps; established the Pakistan Counterinsurgency Capability Fund to help train and equip their military forces; and stepped up intelligence and information sharing to assist Pakistani forces in their fight against Taliban and al Qaeda insurgents in the border regions.[5]
   
• The Administration has reportedly dramatically stepped up the use of targeted strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas.According to press reports, the Obama Administration has adopted an aggressive and focused use of surgical strikes against al Qaeda terrorists operating in ungoverned areas along Afghanistan’s border with Pakistan – considered by our intelligence community to be the core of the al Qaeda organization and the most dangerous component of the al Qaeda network. While details of the program remain classified, press reports have suggested an astonishing rate of success. With greater intelligence-sharing from Pakistan, American forces have reportedly been able to hone in on key targets, while effectively limiting civilian casualties and collateral damage that, in the past, had undermined our efforts. According to expert non-governmental analysis of open sources, 51 so-called surgical strikes were launched in the region in 2009, up considerably from the 36 attacks conducted in 2008 and the total of 45 strikes conducted during the entire Bush Administration. In just the first four months of 2010, over 30 drone strikes have reportedly been launched in Pakistan.[6]

The Administration has bolstered assistance and support to Pakistan to build the capacity of its government and civilian institutions.

• The Administration has tripled non-military aid to Pakistan. The Obama Administration has significantly expanded assistance to support the Pakistani population and bolster its economy and civilian institutions.Working with Congress, the President has pledged “$1.5 billion in direct support to the Pakistani people every year over the next five years – resources that will build schools and roads and hospitals, and strengthen Pakistan’s democracy.” Additionally, the Administration has advanced new initiatives to promote economic development in the border regions and called on the international community to contribute as well.[7]
   
• The Obama Administration has worked to build an effective partnership with Pakistan through expanded diplomatic engagement. The Administration has adopted a new approach with the Pakistani government, demonstrating a strong commitment to working with its leaders. The Administration has sent senior U.S. officials to meet with General Kayani, Foreign Minister Qureshi, President Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani, and has invited many civilian Pakistani leaders to the United States in an effort to address key challenges moving forward.[8]

oStrategic Dialogue. Last month, the United States and Pakistan engaged in two days of high-level talks in an effort to move beyond military cooperation and build a more comprehensive partnership based on shared goals and increased trust. The so-called Strategic Dialogue included a series of working groups to discuss key issues of mutual concern, such as security, energy, agriculture, education, and economic issues. Top officials from both countries attended the dialogue, including Secretary of State Clinton, National Security Advisor Jim Jones, Secretary of Defense Gates, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Mullen, Foreign Minister Qureshi, and General Kiyani, among others. As many experts have noted, such high-level talks are unprecedented in U.S.-Pakistani relations. Both sides agreed to redouble efforts to fight terrorism and advance shared values in order to promote peace and stability in the region. The U.S., through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) pledged to provide $51 million to upgrade three energy projects in Pakistan and also announced plans to reconstruct two roads in Pakistan of strategic importance. The next round of the Strategic Dialogue is scheduled to take place in Islamabad in the next six months.[9]

With the New Strategy in Place, There is Evidence That We Are Making Real Gains in the Fight Against al Qaeda 

Pakistan is showing new resolve in targeting domestic extremists. With greater support and increased pressure from the United States, the Pakistani government has taken the fight to the extremists. Over the past year it has arrested many key Taliban and al Qaeda leaders and launched offensives in Swat, South Waziristan, and throughout the country, in an effort to regain and hold key tribal areas, capture militants, and disrupt terrorist activities along the border with Afghanistan. 

The Pakistani military has stepped up its presence and operations in the tribal areas and border region. As the Brookings Institution’s Michael O’Hanlon recently underscored,“Total Pakistani troops in the North-West Frontier Province, Baluchistan and the tribal areas now number about 150,000, up from 50,000 in 2001. In addition, there are 90,000 paramilitary troops of the Frontier Corps in the area, and they are far better equipped, paid and led than in years past.” Additionally, he noted that the Pakistani army now has 821 posts along the Afghan-Pakistan border and carried out more than 200 operations in 2009 – twice as many as in the previous years combined.[10]

While the increase in force presence and operations marks an important shift in Pakistan’s efforts to combat extremist activity inside its borders, the United States has been clear that there is more that Pakistan must do to take on the Taliban in other areas of the country. Officials and experts report that Pakistan has focused its operations on combating the so-called Pakistani Taliban (or Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan [TTP]), and has proven largely unwilling, or unable, (with some notable exceptions) to go after the Quetta Shura Taliban (the top leadership of Afghan Taliban that is operating out of safe havens in the Balochistan province of Pakistan). As General McChrystal and other top military officials have made clear, the Quetta Shura Taliban is known to be directing the insurgency inside Afghanistan and poses the greatest challenge to our troops on the ground there. The Obama Administration has continued to pressure Pakistan’s leaders to build on their successes against al Qaeda, and target all of these extremist groups and to work to eliminate all terrorist safe havens.[11] While significant work remains to be done, U.S. efforts have already paid dividends. 

• Pakistani authorities have arrested upwards of 20 Taliban and al Qaeda leaders, including several of the Taliban’s shadow government officials. According to media reports Pakistani intelligence officials have arrested as many as 20 Taliban leaders so far this year, including the Afghan Taliban’s second in command, Mullan Abdul GhaniBaradar, who was captured in a joint U.S.-Pakistani operation in February. Pakistani officials have reported that they arrested several other members of the Afghan Taliban’s 15-member leadership council, known as the Quetta Shura, as well as two Taliban shadow provincial governors. As many experts have noted, Pakistan’s willingness to crackdown on senior Taliban leaders reflects a dramatic shift from a year ago, when top government officials refused to acknowledge even the presence of Taliban leaders inside their country.[12]
  
   
• The Pakistani military has launched an aggressive effort to clear militants from the Kyber region – the main supply route for U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan. According media reports, “The military has escalated efforts to clear guerrillas from the Khyber Agency, which borders Orakzai to the north and straddles a highway through the Khyber Pass that is a main supply route for U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan.”[13]
  
   
• The Pakistani Army has largely cleared the Swat valley of Taliban occupation. The Pakistani military undertook operations to clear the Swat Valley of the Taliban in a three-month offensive last spring – an operation that General Petraeus termed a “success model” for U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Today, 30,000 Pakistani troops remain in the valley holding the region, which had been under brutal Taliban rule since 2007. According to Pakistani military officials, the Army is now leading a reconstruction and rehabilitation effort. It has rebuilt bridges, medical centers, mosques, as well as half of the 200 schools destroyed by the Taliban.[14] 
   
• Pakistani forces ousted the Taliban from South Waziristan.After gaining control of the Swat Valley over the summer, the Army moved 28,000 troops into South Waziristan in October to wrest control of the area from Taliban guerillas. In mid-March, Army Chief General Kayani declared that the “militants have been dislodged, and the military has taken control of South Waziristan” and announced plans to formally end operations by March 30, while committing to retain some troops in the area to maintain security. General Kayani also announced that the government had allocated a “huge sum” for development projects for education, agriculture, and the improvement and building of new roads, dams, and power supply facilities. Earlier this month, a group of 100 tribal elders from the South Waziristan district announced that they were ready to return to the region.[15]
   
• The Pakistani military successfully targeted Taliban safe havens in Bajaur.Following an intense air and ground offensive earlier this year, Pakistani authorities recently announced that its security forces had cleared most of the Bajaur Agency of militants. On April 19, the Secretary for Law and Order of the Fata Secretariat declared that 53 villages had been cleared and were being de-notified as conflict zones, allowing for the return of individuals and families displaced by the fighting.[16]
   
• Pakistani forces are currently leading a military operation in the lawless districts of Orakzai– and according to government officials, have gained control of more than 90 percent of the territory, which had been a sanctuary for the Pakistani Taliban and the original base of former Pakistani Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud. Since the offensive began in March, 7,000 Pakistani troops have asserted control over parts of Orakzai and, according to Army officials have killed an estimated 250 militants.[17]
   
• The Pakistani Army has begun targeted operations in North Waziristan.Pakistan has begun to target areas of North Waziristan, the region near the Afghan border where Pakistani Taliban leaders and the Haqqani terrorist network are believed to be located, and where Osama bin Laden could be hiding. An estimated 25,000 Pakistani troops have reportedly been deployed to conduct operations against Taliban militants there – known to be responsible for launching high-profile attacks in Afghanistan, and often targeting U.S. and NATO forces. Describing the combat operations, Major General Khan, head of the Frontier Corps, said that the offensive would involve smaller, “progressive” initiatives, stating that operations are “going to squeeze them [insurgents] out of areas, rather than carry out hardcore kinetic operations. They are going to be incremental.”[18]

Marking a substantial shift over the past year, the Pakistani people increasingly back the military’s operations against Taliban insurgents. Recent surveys have shown that the Pakistani people are increasingly turning against the Taliban, voicing a new level of support for Pakistan’s military operations in the border and tribal areas. A recent report from Gallup stated that, “The Taliban’s presence on either side of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border is largely unwelcome, but increasingly so in Pakistan, where Gallup surveys show they have lost much of the little appeal they had. Four percent of Pakistanis in a November-December 2009 poll, conducted prior to Pakistan's current push to rout the Taliban within its borders, said the Taliban's presence in some areas of the country has a positive influence, down from 15% in June. Gallup most recently polled Pakistanis in the particularly deadly period after the army’s anti-Taliban operations in the South Waziristan tribal area started in October. Retributive militant attacks across Pakistan reportedly have claimed more than 600 Pakistanis’ lives since then, which the public's increasingly negative view of the Taliban may reflect.”[19]

Aggressive efforts have placed unprecedented pressure on al Qaeda leaders inside Pakistan and significantly weakened their ability to plan sophisticated operations.

• CIA Director Panetta assessed that joint operations in Pakistan’s tribal regions are “seriously disrupting al Qaeda.”In a March interview, Director Panetta described the attacks against al Qaeda in the tribal region as “the most aggressive operation that the CIA has been involved in in our history.” He stated that “Those operations are seriously disrupting al Qaeda… It’s pretty clear from all the intelligence we are getting that they are having a very difficult time putting together any kind of command and control, that they are scrambling. And that we really do have them on the run.”[20]
   
• General McChrystal described the Pakistani effort along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border as a “maximum effort against the enemy.”In a news conference earlier this month, McChrystal underscored Pakistan’s, What they are doing, in my view, is a maximum effort against the enemy as they see it, which largely is the Pakistani Taliban and TTP, and they’ve done, as you know, significant operations in Swat, then down in Southern Waziristan, up in Bajor. There is an extraordinary… extraordinary level of effort on the part of the Pak[istani] mil[itary], and it’s impressive, and they’ve had a significant number of losses, and I tell you what: every time I’m with Pak[istani] mil[itary] leaders I express my tribute to those who fell, because they have made much greater effort than the average person around the world understands, and they’ve paid the price for that. So I think they are doing an effective campaign there. Again, it’s not just blocking the border; it’s trying to solve the problem internally…” [21]
   
• U.S. commanders say that Pakistani offensives against Taliban strongholds have placed an unprecedented strain on the Taliban and helped stem the flow of militants into Afghanistan.Major General Curtis Scaparrotti, commander of NATO ISAF in eastern Afghanistan, recently described the impact of stepped-up Pakistani operations against the Taliban, stating “I think overall the effects that we see is that it is putting a strain on our common enemy… We know that they are having more difficulty with their supplies, their finances, their leadership.” Further, he noted that Pakistani and NATO action along the Afghan-Pakistan border has led to a real decline in Taliban activity there.[22]

Similarly, the Pentagon has asserted that the coordination between U.S., Afghan, and Pakistani forces has reached unprecedented levels and, as a result, has severely inhibited the cross-border movement of the Taliban. A senior Pentagon official recently stated, “…the coordination that we have now – it’s probably the best I’ve seen– between Afghanistan coalition forces, Afghan forces and the Pak[istani] military, coordinating on a daily basis with Regional Command East in the 11^th Corps in operations, working together very closely.... And so that border that was very fluid now is starting to become problematic for the insurgencies to go back and forth.”[23]

• The Taliban have been forced underground and increasingly suffer fractures in their organization. As the New York Times recently reported, “A stepped-up campaign of American drone strikes over the past three months has battered Al Qaeda and its Pakistani and Afghan brethren in the tribal area of North Waziristan, according to a mid-ranking militant and supporters of the government there. The strikes have cast a pall of fear over an area that was once a free zone for Al Qaeda and the Taliban, forcing militants to abandon satellite phones and large gatherings in favor of communicating by courier and moving stealthily in small groups, they said.”[24]

According to spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban, Tariq Azam, drone attacks and Pakistani counterterrorism efforts have pushed their leadership to meet in secret, “Our meetings take place on a regular basis, but the leadership is underground due to security concerns…. It is not only because of drones, but the Pakistani Army, too, is targeting us.” Further, there is growing evidence of rising internal dissention within Taliban ranks. As a spokesman of one of the Taliban factions that split from the main group following the death of Baitullah Mehsudrecently stated, “Drone attacks have created a rift in the ranks as people are suspecting each other of spying.”[25]

Over the past year, Pakistan has demonstrated a new commitment to partnering with the United States and working toward shared goals of defeating al Qaeda and building sustainable security in the region. Speaking at the Strategic Dialogue in March, the Foreign Minister Qureshiunderscored support for a “robust engagement between Pakistan and the U.S.” as“critical for peace, stability, and prosperity in the region and the world.” He also stated that “Pakistan is committed to doing its part to facilitate the world’s community effort for peace and stability in Afghanistan.” Similarly, General Kayani has voiced support for U.S. and NATO operations in Afghanistan and has actively worked to advance cooperation and coordination with the United States in order to deepen our strategic partnership.[26]